Russia-Ukraine

Putin >90% likely to remain in power, no change

Putin increasingly using the word "war"...
Fake Putin address broadcast on Russian radio stations after 'hack'...
What comes after Putin in Russia, according to Harvard historian...
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Odds of ceasefire 11%, down from 15% according to Manifold

But Metaculus ceasefire odds unchanged at 14%
Medvedev says Moscow won't negotiate with "the clown Zelensky"...
Will not ‘accept any proposals that would involve the freezing of the conflict’...
How Ukraine could become the next South Korea...
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Ukraine economy
Ukrainians use the same US-funded app to file taxes and track Russian troops...
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Russian economy: CNY replaces USD, Chinese cars reach 40% share
Russia is spending surprisingly little on its war on Ukraine...
Russia drops plan for state-run crypto exchange...

Crimea land bridge 22% chance of being cut, down from 34% according to Insight

But Metaculus land bridge odds unchanged at 28%
Ukraine's chance of retaking Crimea: ~10%, no change
Counteroffensive
Zelensky 'tacitly acknowledges' counteroffensive is underway...
Putin says Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed so far...
Ukrainian forces go on attack in the south...
Ukraine’s military pleads for silence around long-awaited counteroffensive...
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Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78%

Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-10%
First Western tank in Ukraine getting blown up...
Dam collapse a global problem as waters may poison Black Sea, Zelenskiy says...
An “extraordinary” 700,000 people are in need of drinking water, says UN’s top aid official...
Gazprom’s private military company in Ukraine...
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Battle for Bakhmut
Clashes near Bakhmut persist...
The Ukrainian soldiers training to retake Bakhmut...
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Escalation: 5% risk of US clash with Russia, down from 7%

Russia 14% risk of clash with NATO excl. US, no change
Zelenskiy demands 'clear' decision on NATO entry...
Ukraine membership 'not on agenda', says NATO chief...
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China ~5% chance to enter conflict, down from ~10%: Now back to pre-position paper odds
China willing to take pragmatic cooperation with Russia to "new level", says Premier Li...

Last chance

Disappearing soon...

Russia & Iran ink $1.6 billion deal 'to rival Suez Canal'...
Russia's FSB claims to have uncovered NSA spy plot...
Russia seizes Zelensky’s $800,000 Crimea apartment...
Ukrainians planned to target nuclear power plants in Russia...
Russia using old tanks as artillery...
Putin, Zelensky 'agree major summit to discuss plan to end war', says South Africa...

Nuclear war

Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine ~6% risk, up +1 point

The nuclear sequence of the Belgorod raid...
UN nuclear watchdog to strengthen presence at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant...
Zaporizhzhia plant on the brink of "radiation accident", says state nuclear company...
‘Nuclear weapons for everyone’ who joins Belarus and Russia...
Why Putin will use nuclear weapons, according to retired Brigadier General...

Prediction markets

Mainstream press coverage

Kalshi in The New York Times...
Metaculus in The Economist...

US debt

Default risk down to ~1%

Biden signs debt ceiling bill
Biden signs debt ceiling bill...
Senate narrowly passes debt ceiling deal...
US House overwhelmingly passes debt ceiling deal...
Here’s what’s in, what’s out...
Tyler Cowen: "Ho hum..."