The Base Rate Times
Prediction Markets: Where Democracy meets Accuracy
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Israel-Hamas
Hamas controls Gaza?
Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
Israel-Saudi deal?
Hezbollah escalation?
Iran escalation?
Russia-Ukraine
Putin stays in power?
Coup in Russia?
Russia gains territory?
Crimea counteroffensive?
Escalation risk?
Peace odds?
Nuclear war
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Twitter vs Threads
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Israel-Hamas
Gaza
Hezbollah
Iran
Ceasefire
Saudi deal
Russia-Ukraine
Putin
Crimea
Escalation
Russian coup
Territorial gains
Peace
Metaculus:
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
Insight:
Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by September 30th, 2023?
Hypermind:
Ukraine: On December 31, 2023, who will control SEVASTOPOL?
Manifold:
Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023
GJ Open:
Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Nuclear war
Twitter vs Threads
