• As of late Feb, GJ superforecasters assigned ~70% probability to the conflict not ending before October 2024 • Superforecasters on which year they expected the war to end: median 2025, minimum 2024 & maximum 2037
1. The Russia Ukraine War will not be over by the end of the year. 2. Putin will not be removed from office. 3. Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. 4. Western support for Ukraine will not cease. 5. Russia will not make significant territorial gains.
Ukraine economy
Ukrainians use the same US-funded app to file taxes and track Russian troops...
• Ukraine's Diia app, providing digital governance and services, is used by 19 million citizens, covering 70% of smartphones.
• Black Sea ports blocked & cheap Ukrainian grain stuck in central Europe, resulting price crash hit local farmers • Poland’s governing PiS party relies on rural support & faces tight election • EC says trade policy an EU-exclusive competence & unilateral actions “are not acceptable” (The Guardian)
Russian economy: CNY replaces USD, Chinese cars reach 40% share
Russia is spending surprisingly little on its war on Ukraine...
• The estimated cost of the invasion stands at 5 trillion roubles ($67bn) annually, about 3% of Russia's GDP.
• This expenditure is considerably low compared to historical standards. For instance, during WWII, the USSR and the U.S. allocated 61% and 50% of their GDPs to war efforts, respectively.
• It would be challenging for Russia to increase war expenditure without directly impacting its citizens through inflation, debt, tax increases, or shifting public expenditure towards defense.
• Modern armed forces require fewer personnel, and their equipment is more accurate. As a result, spending less now compared to historical figures like in 1945 can still maintain a potent military force.
Russia drops plan for state-run crypto exchange...
• Russian lawmakers scrapped plans for a state-owned cryptocurrency exchange, deciding instead to regulate existing private companies.
• Ivan Chebeskov, Director of the Financial Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance, stated that the Ministry doesn't support a national crypto-exchange, and wants to regulate the creation of such platforms by private businesses.
• Crypto exchanges may be allowed to handle cross-border payments, likely facing new restrictions. The Central Bank is expected to regulate these platforms.
• Private crypto operators in Russia view this shift positively, believing it will mitigate risks of sanctions, cyber attacks, and market monopolies.
Zelensky 'tacitly acknowledges' counteroffensive is underway...
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tacitly acknowledged the launch of a counteroffensive against Russian forces, refrained from giving detailed information.
• Rocket and drone attack in Odessa claimed lives and injured dozens. Debris from an Iranian drone led to a fire, more deaths and injuries.
• Ukrainian forces reported heavy battles in Luhansk and Donetsk; made advancements near Bakhmut in Donetsk.
• Britain confirmed that Ukraine had made significant operations and progress, penetrating the first line of Russian defense in some areas.
Putin says Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed so far...
• Russian President Putin claimed Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed so far, with each attempted advance resulting in heavy casualties.
• Russia's Defence Ministry reported repelling attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, inflicting over 1,000 Ukrainian casualties and destroying several Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles.
• Putin suggested Ukraine's casualty rate was exceeding the traditional ratio of three attackers to one defender.
• Russia is braced for a large-scale attack expected to target its supply route to the annexed Crimean peninsula, with the fate of Ukraine's Western-backed counteroffensive set to influence future diplomatic and military support from the West.
• Ukrainian forces, equipped with Western-supplied tanks and artillery, intensified their assault on Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia region on Thursday.
• Fighting centered around the town of Tokmak, a critical Russian logistical hub, indicating the possible start of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
• This area is critical as it potentially links to a Ukrainian assault towards Melitopol, a key objective for Kyiv.
• Unconfirmed reports suggest Leopard tanks and US Bradleys are among the assets deployed in the assault.
Ukraine’s military pleads for silence around long-awaited counteroffensive...
• A video was released by Ukraine's deputy minister of defence, Hanna Maliar, featuring Ukrainian soldiers gesturing for silence, hinting at an unannounced counteroffensive against Russia.
• Ukrainian officials balance the necessity of planning a counteroffensive with the need to prevent Russian defenses from preparing.
• Zelensky has made contradictory statements about the counteroffensive's timeline, creating a sense of suspense.
• Preparations have been made for a Ukrainian attack, with Leopard and Challenger tanks provided by Western allies now ready for use, and trained troops returning from NATO exercises.
• Moscow, largely protected until now, faces drone attacks for the first time since the conflict in Ukraine began.
• Second drone attack this month follows a Ukrainian-aligned paramilitary raid in Russian territory and alleged Ukrainian shelling at a Russian border town.
• U.S. officials reportedly believe Ukraine is responsible for the Kremlin drone attack, the Belgorod raid, and assassinations on Russian soil, but no public accusations have been made.
• Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly suggested occupying Russian border cities and using long-range missiles against Russian troops.
• Russia's Ministry of Defense shared unverified video showing a Leopard tank, belonging to Ukraine, allegedly being destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Ukraine recently obtained advanced Leopard tanks from Western allies, making this loss significant.
• Despite Russia's history of false military claims, key open-source intelligence Twitter accounts, UA Weapons Tracker and Oryx, consider the video authentic.
• While the loss of a Leopard tank would be a blow to Ukraine and its allies, such losses are expected in front-line deployments.
Dam collapse a global problem as waters may poison Black Sea, Zelenskiy says...
• Floods carry sewage, oil, chemicals, and potential anthrax into the Black Sea.
• Unknown state of anthrax burial sites in occupied territories causes concern.
• Floods affect 100,000 people, 125,000 acres of forests, and 20,000 animals.
• The French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety warns of potential dyke collapse. The Zaporizhzhia plant's cooling needs could be met alternatively if the dyke collapses.
An “extraordinary” 700,000 people are in need of drinking water, says UN’s top aid official...
• The rupture of the Kakhova dam in Ukraine has drastically worsened the country's humanitarian crisis, according to UN aid chief Martin Griffiths.
• The disaster left around 700,000 people without access to drinking water and caused extensive flooding of agricultural lands.
• The incident threatens to reduce grain exports, raise global food prices, and increase hunger for millions.
• The UN, working through Ukrainian aid groups, has provided aid to 30,000 people in Ukrainian-controlled flooded areas, and seeks access to Russian-controlled regions to assist victims there.
Pro-Ukraine group of partisans captures Russian soldiers...
• A pro-Ukraine group, the Russian Volunteer Corps, claims to have captured several Russian soldiers in a raid into Belgorod, Russia, promising to hand them to Ukrainian authorities.
• The governor of Belgorod, Vyacheslav Gladkov, agreed to meet the group if the soldiers were alive, but the Corps reported he failed to show at the agreed location.
• Russia's defence ministry stated that its forces disrupted the group, pushing the fighters back into Ukraine, while Gladkov made no mention of the proposed meeting in his statement.
• Ukraine denies orchestrating the cross-border attacks, attributing them to forces opposing Russian President Putin's invasion, predicting a rise in such resistance.
• Russia's defense ministry announced its forces had destroyed Ukraine's "last warship" in a missile strike at the port of Odesa two days ago.
• Ukrainian navy refused to comment on Russia's claim or disclose any information about wartime losses.
• On Monday, Ukrainian officials reported that Russia's heavy airstrikes had caused a fire at the Black Sea port of Odesa and incapacitated five aircraft in western Ukraine.
• Russia also claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions around settlements in Ukraine's Donetsk region, with "fierce fighting" continuing in the largely destroyed town of Avdiivka.
• Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine, remains a contested area with persistent clashes and significant Russian losses, despite no apparent strategic value.
• Despite Moscow's claims of capturing the city following intense fighting, Ukraine asserts it still holds a foothold in Bakhmut.
• Around 23 combat clashes occurred over the past day in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; Russia asserts it has annexed these regions along with others, including Crimea.
• Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar maintains Ukrainian forces control the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut, potentially setting up observation posts.
The Ukrainian soldiers training to retake Bakhmut...
• The Ukrainian troops are training in environments resembling the actual landscapes they will fight in, storming treelines, clearing trenches, and setting defensive perimeters.
• Battalion Commander, Petro Horbatenko, acknowledges the challenge of facing the Russian regular army, expecting them to counterattack when Ukraine attacks.
• The Ukrainian army sees a significant influx of new recruits, including a woman, indicating the heavy toll of the conflict.
• Despite Bakhmut's fall, Ukrainian forces have maintained offensive operations in the surrounding countryside.
• Ukrainian troops recognize the strength of the Russian army's defensive capabilities and its abundance of equipment, and underscore the need to be more professional and technically advanced to win.
• Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, says they're leaving Ukrainian city Bakhmut, planning to hand control to the Russian army by June 1.
• Despite Prigozhin's announcement, Ukraine maintains they still control parts of Bakhmut, including some areas where Wagner forces remain.
• Prigozhin has led Wagner's brutal fight in Bakhmut, claiming a high cost with 20,000 of his fighters, many of them convicts, dead in the battle.
Zelenskiy demands 'clear' decision on NATO entry...
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy calls for NATO to decide on Ukraine's membership while meeting European leaders in Moldova near the Ukrainian border.
• The summit, held in Moldova near the Russian-backed Transdniestria region, serves as a symbol of support for Ukraine and Moldova and discusses other issues, such as ethnic tensions in Kosovo and peace efforts in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• Moldova, an ex-Soviet republic seeking EU accession, hosts the summit under NATO surveillance, closing its airspace except for official planes.
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu, whose relations with Moscow soured after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, aims to accelerate Moldova's EU entry through the summit.
Russia's FSB claims to have uncovered NSA spy plot...
• Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have discovered a U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) scheme using malware to exploit backdoor vulnerabilities in Apple phones.
• The FSB reports that thousands of Apple phones, including those of Russian users and foreign diplomats in Russia, were infected.
• The FSB suggests that this implies "close cooperation" between Apple and the NSA for the collection of large-scale data from Internet users.
• The warning from Russia followed a report by Kaspersky Lab stating its employees' iPhones were compromised in a highly sophisticated, targeted cyberattack.
Russia seizes Zelensky’s $800,000 Crimea apartment...
• Russian authorities seized Ukrainian President Zelensky's $800,000 apartment in Crimea, declared by Crimea's Kremlin-appointed Governor Sergei Aksyonov.
• The apartment, along with other Ukrainian-owned assets, will be sold off to fund Russia's war efforts against Ukraine.
• Approximately 700 Ukrainian properties were confiscated by February 2023, a policy shift from prior vows to respect pre-annexation property rights.
Putin, Zelensky 'agree major summit to discuss plan to end war', says South Africa...
• Presidents of Russia and Ukraine agreed to separately meet an African leaders' delegation to discuss ending the Ukraine war, as shared by South Africa's President, Ramaphosa.
• The delegation, led by Ramaphosa, includes leaders from Zambia, Senegal, Congo, Uganda, and Egypt. Details and timeline are yet to be provided.
• Ramaphosa mentioned that the conflict affects Africa indirectly through increased prices of commodities like grain, fertilizer, and fuel.
• UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, was informed about the planned meetings and welcomed the initiative. He previously expressed doubt about peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.
• A raid conducted by anti-Putin Russian operatives occurred close to a Russian nuclear storage facility in the Belgorod region.
• While the raid did not directly threaten the facility, it has raised questions regarding the safety of Russia's nuclear arsenal amid ongoing conflict and potential internal unrest.
• Russia has 12 central storage facilities for nuclear weapons, spread across the country, from European Russia to Siberia and the Far East.
• Given the massive geographic spread, it is virtually impossible to place these facilities under external control.
• The Russian nuclear system does have a vulnerability - its manufacturing facilities run by Rosatom, employing about 90,000 personnel.
• Geographic constraints are more favorable concerning the nuclear industrial base, with a manageable roadway network connecting key locations.
UN nuclear watchdog to strengthen presence at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant...
• Concerns rise as Ukraine plans a counter-offensive, likely involving intense combat near the nuclear site.
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plans to augment its team at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, a Russian-controlled facility in southern Ukraine.
• Director Rafael Grossi will visit the plant next week, bringing with him a larger team to replace the current group.
• The plant, Europe's largest, was captured by Russia last year and continues to operate primarily under Ukrainian staff.
• The recent collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam, a key source of cooling water for the plant, complicates the nuclear safety situation, making the IAEA's reinforced presence crucial.
Zaporizhzhia plant on the brink of "radiation accident", says state nuclear company...
• Concerns rise as Ukraine plans a counter-offensive, likely involving intense combat near the nuclear site.
• Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear company, warns that the plant is on the brink of a nuclear and radiation accident.
• The threat is not a nuclear explosion, but a meltdown of the thousands of fuel rods at the plant, potentially releasing radioactive particles across vast distances.
• Power to the plant has been cut off seven times since Putin's invasion, each time backup generators maintained water circulation temporarily.
• Reports suggest Russia might have placed explosives around key nuclear components at the site, and mass evacuations are underway.
• IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi warns of the inevitability of a nuclear accident if the situation persists.
• Grossi's call for immediate demilitarization of the plant has been repeatedly refused by Russia, with Putin keen on maintaining control over a key energy source.
"Note forecast was on the 3rd of Oct ['22].We had more uncertainty back then, & moving probability downwards somewhat rapidly seems correct" (@NunoSempere)
• President Biden signed a bill raising the U.S. debt ceiling two days before a potential default.
• Instead of a public ceremony, the bill was signed privately due to the tight deadline.
• The agreement suspends the debt limit until 2025 and imposes spending restrictions. It gives lawmakers two-year budget targets to ensure fiscal stability before elections.
• The legislation will ensure the government can borrow to pay its existing debts.
• The bill keeps nondefense spending roughly flat in 2024, increases it by 1% in 2025, and suspends the debt limit until 2025.
• The bill is expected to reduce budget deficits by about $1.5 trillion over the next decade.
• The agreement fully funds veterans' medical care, including a fund dedicated to veterans exposed to toxic substances.
• The bill rescinds about $30 billion in unspent coronavirus relief money, but protects funding for certain pandemic response measures.
• The agreement cuts $1.4 billion from IRS funding.
• Work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would be expanded, with changes phasing out in 2030.
• The bill adjusts environmental review processes to streamline them and approves outstanding permits for the Mountain Valley Pipeline.
• The bill ends the pause on student loan repayments in late August.
• Certain Republican proposals, like new work requirements for Medicaid recipients and repealing clean energy tax credits, are excluded from the final agreement.
• The author doesn't believe in having or manipulating the debt ceiling for strategic gains.
• The current deal resembles the outcome of a regular appropriations process.
• Questionable tactics like minting coins or invoking amendments to circumvent the debt ceiling aren't worth tampering with the Constitution.
• Those who saw this event as insignificant were correct, though a final dramatic twist may still be forthcoming.
AI-generated counter-arguments:
• The debt ceiling checks government spending, its strategic use can spotlight fiscal responsibility.
• Unconventional methods such as minting a coin or invoking an amendment are necessary in the face of increasing political gridlock.
• A default on the U.S. debt, even if it's considered unlikely, could have severe economic consequences. Therefore, every debt ceiling negotiation should be taken seriously.