Japan will donate 100 military vehicles to Ukraine...
• Japan plans to donate approximately 100 military vehicles and 30,000 food rations to Ukraine, as shown in a ceremony involving key government officials.
• Japan has also offered considerable financial support, has accepted over 2,000 displaced Ukrainians, and is involved in imposing sanctions on Russia, motivated by fears of potential conflict escalation in East Asia.
Member states discuss raising Europe’s military budget by another €3.5bn...
• The EU has supplied Ukraine with 220,000 artillery shells and 1,300 missiles since March, with plans to increase the European Peace Facility budget by €3.5bn, €1bn of which is for Ukraine.
• 24 EU nations and Norway are reviving old defense assembly lines and boosting existing ones to improve supply chain resilience.
• The EU is encouraging joint procurement of munitions by its member states from the European defense industry, setting aside €1bn for this purpose.
• EU agreed to deliver one million rounds of 155-mm shells to Ukraine within 12 months — a benchmark that the US has already met • 155-mm artillery shells were among the first things European countries trimmed from their defense budgets after the Cold War • It would take at least 3 years just to fulfill Norway’s order — which is still being negotiated & the government has yet to pay for (NYT)
US officials "profound concerns" about South Africa non-alignment...
• South Africa's presidential security advisor, Sydney Mufamadi, declares the country "actively non-aligned" in Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• South Africa's recent naval exercises with Russia and China, along with hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, raised questions about its stance.
• U.S. ambassador Reuben Brigety accuses South Africa of supplying weapons to Russia, leading to a diplomatic crisis.
"Note forecast was on the 3rd of Oct ['22].We had more uncertainty back then, & moving probability downwards somewhat rapidly seems correct" (@NunoSempere)
Hardline Republicans threaten US debt ceiling deal...
• Republicans, including Representative Chip Roy and Senator Lindsey Graham, voice concerns about the deal's timing, terms, and potential impacts on defense and support for Ukraine.
• Progressive Democrats express opposition to the deal's additional work requirements attached to food aid for people aged 50 to 54.
• The deal would increase spending on military and veterans’ care, cap many discretionary domestic programs, but doesn't specify which ones, setting up future battles.
• The deal must pass both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but analysts, including Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel, are optimistic it will.
• Stephen Pavlick, from Renaissance Macro Research, labels the deal a "Republican victory," as Biden had to negotiate on the debt limit.
• David Roche, from Independent Strategy, sees it as a "Democratic win," expecting it to pass the House with Democratic support.
• The deal's passage could provide market opportunities. Pavlick suggests buying Treasury bonds, while Siegel warns of potential issues due to the Federal Reserve's tightening.
• The author doesn't believe in having or manipulating the debt ceiling for strategic gains.
• The current deal resembles the outcome of a regular appropriations process.
• Questionable tactics like minting coins or invoking amendments to circumvent the debt ceiling aren't worth tampering with the Constitution.
• Those who saw this event as insignificant were correct, though a final dramatic twist may still be forthcoming.
AI-generated counter-arguments:
• The debt ceiling checks government spending, its strategic use can spotlight fiscal responsibility.
• Unconventional methods such as minting a coin or invoking an amendment are necessary in the face of increasing political gridlock.
• A default on the U.S. debt, even if it's considered unlikely, could have severe economic consequences. Therefore, every debt ceiling negotiation should be taken seriously.
Yellen says June 5 is last date for debt ceiling...
• Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary, warns of a government default if Congress doesn't raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by June 5.
• This new deadline gives negotiators a little more time to resolve differences and reach a deal to increase the government's borrowing limit.
• Yellen highlights the Treasury's commitments, with $130 billion of payments due in early June, and another $92 billion scheduled for the week of June 5.
• To prevent a potential default, the Treasury took an unusual step, swapping $2 billion of Treasury securities between two funds, a measure last used in 2015.