• As of late Feb, GJ superforecasters assigned ~70% probability to the conflict not ending before October 2024• Superforecasters on which year they expected the war to end: median 2025, minimum 2024 & maximum 2037
1. The Russia Ukraine War will not be over by the end of the year.2. Putin will not be removed from office.3. Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.4. Western support for Ukraine will not cease.5. Russia will not make significant territorial gains.
• EU agreed to deliver one million rounds of 155-mm shells to Ukraine within 12 months — a benchmark that the US has already met• 155-mm artillery shells were among the first things European countries trimmed from their defense budgets after the Cold War• It would take at least 3 years just to fulfill Norway’s order — which is still being negotiated & the government has yet to pay for (NYT)
"Note forecast was on the 3rd of Oct ['22].We had more uncertainty back then, & moving probability downwards somewhat rapidly seems correct" (@NunoSempere)