Russia-Ukraine

Putin >90% likely to remain in power

Ukraine likely behind Kremlin drone attack...
Putin criticizes "neocolonial system"...
We are closer than ever to arresting Putin, says Gordon Brown...
German spy chief sees no 'cracks' in Putin system...

Odds of ceasefire ~13%, down from ~20%

Putin, Zelensky 'agree major summit to discuss plan to end war', says South Africa...
Will not ‘accept any proposals that would involve the freezing of the conflict’...
How Ukraine could become the next South Korea...
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Russian economy: CNY replaces USD, Chinese cars reach 40% share
Russia and China deepen economic ties...

Russia likely to gain territory (~80%), but not major city (~1%)

Note: Bakhmut is not a 'major city'
Wagner founder warns Russia could lose, calls for total war...
Ukrainians planned to target nuclear power plants in Russia...
US equipment used in raid into Russia...?
Russia claims cross-border attack repelled, 70+ 'saboteurs' killed...
Battle for Bakhmut
Russia "commanding rubble," says retired U.S. General...
May 25: Wagner begin withdrawing from Bakhmut...
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Crimea land bridge ~30% chance of being cut

Ukraine's chance of retaking Crimea: ~10%
Russia seizes Zelensky’s $800,000 Crimea apartment...
Conditions created for offensive...

Escalation: ~5% risk of NATO clash with Russia, down from ~9%

China ~8% chance to enter conflict, down from ~10%
Ukraine membership 'not on agenda', says NATO chief...
Japan will donate 100 military vehicles to Ukraine...
China
China willing to take pragmatic cooperation with Russia to "new level", says Premier Li...
Europe
Member states discuss raising Europe’s military budget by another €3.5bn...
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BRICS
US officials "profound concerns" about South Africa non-alignment...

Last chance

Nuclear war

Up to ~5% risk of Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine

EU condemns Russian-Belarus nuclear warhead dead...
Russia signs deal to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus

US debt ceiling

Default risk down to ~1%

Ceiling ~6% chance of being raised before June 1, but >90% chance by July (Yellen says new deadline June 5)
Hardline Republicans threaten US debt ceiling deal...
Analysts optimistic...
Tyler Cowen: "Ho hum..."
Yellen says June 5 is last date for debt ceiling...
US triple-A credit potential downgrade even if ceiling raised...

China-Taiwan

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